What is an acceptable risk of ruin?

Under 1% across the trades you expect to take in a year. Above 5% means the strategy is likely to end the account before its edge is realised.

Does a high win rate protect against ruin?

Much less than traders expect. Risk per trade dominates the calculation by orders of magnitude.

What risk per trade is safe on gold?

0.25% to 0.5% for most retail accounts, because gold can travel $25 to $40 in a New York session.

Does the calculator assume losses are independent?

Yes, which is its main limitation. Real losses cluster by regime, so the true probability is higher than modelled.

Risk of Ruin Calculator for Traders

Risk of ruin is the probability a losing sequence takes the account past a threshold before positive expectancy can show.

Risk per trade dominates the answer: the same edge is safe at 0.5% and reckless at 3%.

Risk of ruin answers a different question from expectancy: not whether the method wins, but whether the account survives the losing run it will eventually meet. Enter your win rate, reward-to-risk and percentage risk per gold trade and the calculator returns the probability of losing a chosen share of the account across the sample.

GoldHunts — the AI-powered gold trading operating system.