What is a good expectancy per trade?

Anything reliably above 0.2R across 100 or more trades is a workable edge.

What win rate do I need with 2R winners?

33.3% to break even if losers average 1R, so a 45% win rate carries 11.7 points of edge.

What is the difference between expectancy and profit factor?

Expectancy is the average result of the next trade in R; profit factor is gross winnings divided by gross losses across the sample.

Why is my real expectancy lower than planned?

Almost always because the average loser exceeds 1R through widened stops and slippage around 13:30 UTC data.

Trading Expectancy Calculator in R and Cash

Expectancy is win rate multiplied by the average winner minus loss rate multiplied by the average loser, both in R.

A 45% win rate with 2R winners and 1R losers is 0.35R per trade, or 35R across 100 trades.

Gold punishes a thin edge faster than most instruments, because a widened spread and a 13:30 UTC news wick both land on the loss side of the ledger. Enter your own win rate, average winner and average loser and the calculator returns expectancy in R and in cash on your lot size, plus the win rate your reward-to-risk needs simply to break even.

GoldHunts — the AI-powered gold trading operating system.