What risk per trade should I use on a gold prop firm challenge?

Between 0.25% and 0.5%. At 0.5% a 10% drawdown allows 20 consecutive full losses and a 5% daily limit allows ten in a day.

How many trades does an 8% prop firm target take?

At 0.5% risk the target is 16R. At 0.35R expectancy per trade that is roughly 46 trades on average.

Is the pass probability a prediction?

No. It is a barrier model assuming independent trades, losers at exactly 1R and no daily-limit breach, so the real probability is lower.

Why do most gold traders fail prop evaluations?

They breach the daily loss limit rather than total drawdown. Gold can travel $25 to $40 in a New York session.

Prop Firm Gold Planner for XAUUSD Evaluations

A prop evaluation is arithmetic before it is trading: the target, the daily loss limit and the total drawdown limit define a corridor, and risk per trade decides how many steps fit inside it.

At 0.5% risk an 8% target is a 16R climb and a 10% drawdown limit is exactly 20 consecutive full losses.