What is a good expectancy for a gold strategy?

Anything consistently above 0.15R per trade after real spread and commission is a workable intraday gold edge. Above roughly 0.3R sustained over hundreds of trades is exceptional and worth double-checking for a data error or an unrepresentative sample.

Is a high win rate a good sign on gold?

Only when read next to the average win-to-loss ratio. An 80% win rate at 0.25R wins against 1R losses is breakeven or worse before costs, while a 40% win rate at 2.5R wins is a far more durable edge.

How do MAE and MFE help size a gold stop?

MAE across winning trades shows the furthest price ever moved against you before working — a stop noticeably wider than that figure is donating unnecessary risk. MFE across all trades shows how far the move typically travelled, which tells you whether your target is leaving profit on the table.

Why measure drawdown in R instead of dollars?

A dollar drawdown is tied to a specific account size and position sizing regime and cannot be compared across time. Drawdown measured in cumulative R is comparable across account sizes and against what a backtest or demo sample implied was plausible.

How many trades before session-hour R is trustworthy?

Aim for at least 30 trades within a given hour bucket before trusting the number, and treat anything under 10 as anecdotal. Widen to session-level buckets (Asian, London, overlap, rollover) if hourly samples are too thin.

What is the cost ratio and why does it matter on gold?

It is spread plus commission plus swap divided by gross profit before costs. On a scalp-sized gold strategy this can consume 20-35% of gross profit, turning a strategy with a real market edge into one with little or no net edge after execution.

GOLD JOURNAL METRICS

The XAUUSD journal metrics that actually change decisions are expectancy in R, win rate read together with average R rather than alone, MAE and MFE distributions for sizing stops and targets, R broken down by UTC session hour, trading costs as a share of gross profit, and drawdown measured in cumulative R rather than currency.

Win rate alone is close to meaningless on gold because it trades off directly against average win-to-loss ratio; a 40% win rate at 2.5R produces a far more durable business than an 80% win rate at 0.25R.

Every metric requires a minimum sample before it is more signal than noise — roughly 30 trades for expectancy, 50 per bucket for MAE/MFE, and 30 per hour for session-hour breakdowns — and a single large outlier trade can flip the conclusion of a small sample entirely.