What does a good gold mean reversion trade look like?

A written rotational regime call, stretch of at least 2 ATR from session VWAP, a rejection candle or failure to make a new extreme, a stop just beyond the extreme with a buffer, and targets at half the distance to the anchor and then the anchor.

Why was the biggest stretch the losing trade?

Because extension measures conviction as often as exhaustion. The largest stretches usually occur during macro repricing — a hot CPI print, for example — which is precisely when price will not return to the old anchor.

Are these XAU reversion examples real trades?

No. They are illustrative scenarios built on typical gold behaviour with round numbers, provided for education only, with no results implied or projected.

Gold Mean Reversion Examples: XAU Fades

Three illustrative XAU mean reversion scenarios: a London midday VWAP fade at 2.2 ATR stretch returning around 1.2R, a New York afternoon exhaustion fade with targets short of the anchor returning around 1.4R, and a post-CPI fade at 3.1 ATR that lost in full.

The winning examples both began with a written rotational regime call, a rejection confirmation and structural targets at half the distance to the anchor.

The losing example had the largest stretch of the month, demonstrating that extension measures conviction as often as exhaustion and that the regime classification must come before the stretch measurement.