What is gold most correlated with?

Of the series we measure, the US 10-year real yield, at -0.27 on month-over-month changes across 140 observations since January 2015. The nominal 10-year follows at -0.26 and the broad dollar index at -0.23.

Is gold correlated with inflation?

Not measurably on a monthly horizon. The correlation between change in the US CPI index and XAUUSD returns is 0.03 across 139 observations, which is indistinguishable from zero.

Why are all the correlations so weak?

Because gold has large price-insensitive buyers. Official-sector reserve accumulation and crisis demand continue regardless of carry cost, which breaks the carry relationship for extended periods.

Can I reproduce these numbers?

Yes. The aligned monthly series for each pair are published as CSV files on the relevant macro pages, and the full snapshot including the coefficients is available as JSON.

GOLD MACRO CORRELATION STUDY

Name: Gold macro correlation dataset
Creator: GoldHunts
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Across 140 month-end observations since January 2015, XAUUSD returns correlate at -0.27 with the 10-year real yield, -0.26 with the nominal 10-year, -0.23 with the broad dollar index, -0.17 with 10-year breakevens and 0.03 with the CPI index. No single macro series explains most of gold's monthly variance.

Across 140 month-end observations since January 2015, GoldHunts measures XAUUSD return correlations of -0.27 against the 10-year real yield, -0.26 against the nominal 10-year, -0.23 against the broad dollar index, -0.17 against 10-year breakevens and 0.03 against the CPI index.

Correlations are Pearson coefficients on month-over-month changes, not price levels, because two decade-long uptrends produce a large but uninformative coefficient.

The near-zero CPI result rules out the common claim that gold tracks inflation monthly; gold tracks the real return on competing safe assets instead.