VWAP REVERSION

This model uses the Volume Weighted Average Price as an anchor. When price deviates significantly from VWAP, it looks for opportunities to trade the reversion back toward this institutional reference point. **How It Works:** 1. Calculate session VWAP as the anchor point 2. Wait for significant deviation from VWAP 3. Look for exhaustion signals at deviation extreme 4. Enter toward VWAP with stop beyond the deviation **Key Principles:** • VWAP represents fair value for the session • Institutions often trade toward VWAP for execution benchmarks • Extreme deviations tend to revert during consolidation phases **Example Scenarios:** • Price spikes 2 standard deviations above VWAP on news but shows rejection — enter short targeting VWAP • Aggressive selling pushes price well below VWAP with buying absorption appearing — enter long toward VWAP

• Tracks session volume-weighted average price as the reference level.
• Requires a measured distance from it before considering an entry.
• Targets the reference, not an extension beyond it.

The method itself is documented in full in Gold mean reversion. It explains the wider trading idea, its risks and the conditions that can invalidate it.

Price has moved impulsively away from VWAP and shows signs of exhaustion. Especially effective during the middle of sessions after the opening volatility settles.

• Two-sided sessions where gold rotates around fair value.
• Mid-session lulls between London and New York drivers.
• Days without scheduled high-impact US data.

Strong trending days where price continues away from VWAP. Early session when VWAP is still being established.

• Trend days where fair value drags along behind price all session.
• Session opens, before enough volume exists to mean anything.
• Illiquid holiday sessions where the reference is unstable.

No model is right about gold all of the time. When available, it will act only while you leave it switched on, on an account you choose and within the limits you set.

• Risk per trade, as a percentage of the account or a cash amount.
• Daily loss limit — once hit, no new entries for the rest of the London trading day.
• Maximum open positions on gold at any one time.
• Sessions it may trade, and whether high-impact news blocks new entries.

Every order still passes the same pre-trade checks as a trade you place by hand. Reducing or closing risk is never blocked.

No closed gold trades recorded on this model yet.

No closed gold trades have been recorded for this model in that period.

Scope: XAUUSD only, closed trades only, grouped by London trading day, across Gold Hunts practice and real-money accounts. Cash outcomes are deliberately not published, because they depend on account size, lot size and leverage. Older rows do not always record whether the account was real or practice.

VWAP Reversion trades a method Gold Hunts has already documented in full. These 7 pieces cover the rules, the sessions, the failure modes, the risk arithmetic and worked examples on XAUUSD.

• Gold mean reversion: the full method

  The institutional guide to XAUUSD mean reversion: VWAP and EMA anchors, stretch measured in ATR, rotational versus trend regimes, entry checklist, invalidation, target logic and two fully worked gold trades.

• THE HOURS THAT ACTUALLY ROTATE

  Hour-by-hour XAUUSD behaviour for mean reversion: why the Asian range and London midday drift favour a fade back to VWAP, why the London open and US data window do not, day-of-week effects and DST handling.

• WHEN GOLD MEAN REVERSION FAILS

  Why XAUUSD mean reversion fails: trend days that satisfy the stretch trigger, volume-backed excursions, VWAP repricing after data, insufficient stretch, averaging down and rollover false anchors.

• SIZING GOLD REVERSION TRADES

  Position sizing XAUUSD mean reversion on the 100-ounce contract: ATR-based stops beyond the excursion extreme, correlation risk across XAU crosses, daily loss caps, time stops and prop-firm constraints.

• THE MIND OF THE GOLD FADE

  The specific psychological failure modes of fading gold: catching the falling knife, averaging into a losing trend trade, refusing to accept a regime change, and the false comfort of being right eventually — each with a hard rule and a journal prompt.

• MAKING THE FADE MEASURABLE

  The fields, tags and screenshots that make XAUUSD mean reversion measurable: extension in dollars and ATR multiples, mean used, regime tag, edge-decay metrics by extension bucket and regime, and a Gold Hunts journal walkthrough.

• THREE GOLD MEAN-REVERSION TRADES, IN FULL

  Three fully annotated XAUUSD mean-reversion trades: a clean win fading a 2.4 ATR stretch back to VWAP, a valid loss that followed every rule, and a trade that should never have been taken on a trend day — with the anchor, extension size, entry, stop in dollars per ounce, target, lot size from a stated account and R outcome.

• Trend Exhaustion Fade — Fades a gold trend that is visibly running out of participation.
• Mean Reversion — Trades the snap back when gold has stretched far from its own average.

See all twenty gold models