What is the correlation between gold and real yields?

On GoldHunts data covering 140 month-end observations since January 2015, the Pearson correlation between month-over-month change in XAUUSD and month-over-month change in the US 10-year TIPS yield is -0.27. The sign is negative and stable, but the magnitude is modest: real yields explain a minority of monthly variance in gold.

Why do falling real yields push gold higher?

Gold pays no income, so its cost of ownership is whatever a safe inflation-protected bond would have paid you. When the 10-year real yield falls, that forgone return shrinks and allocators can hold metal at almost no economic cost, so they raise their gold weight.

Is gold an inflation hedge?

Not on a monthly horizon in any measurable way. In our sample the correlation between month-over-month change in the US CPI index and gold returns is 0.03, effectively zero. Gold responds to inflation only when the print changes the expected path of policy rates, and therefore real yields.

Which data series should I actually watch?

The Federal Reserve publishes the 10-year TIPS yield as series DFII10 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate as T10YIE. Watch DFII10 for the carry argument and T10YIE to see whether a move came from inflation expectations or from nominal rates.

Can I trade gold off real yields alone?

No. The relationship works over weeks and months and fails for long stretches when official-sector buying or crisis demand dominates. Use it as a directional filter that sets which side you take at full risk, then use structure and tested rules for entries and stops.

Can I reuse this data?

Yes. The CSV and JSON on this page are free to use, including commercially, with attribution to goldhunts.com and a link back to this page. The macro inputs are public Federal Reserve series; the aligned gold series and the correlation calculations are ours.

REAL YIELDS AND GOLD

Name: XAUUSD month-end close vs US 10-year real yield, 2015 to date
Creator: GoldHunts
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Gold competes with inflation-protected government bonds, so the US 10-year real yield acts as its cost of carry. When real yields fall, holding non-yielding metal costs less and gold usually rises. On 140 months of GoldHunts data, month-over-month changes in the 10-year real yield correlate negatively with gold returns at r = -0.27.

Gold competes with inflation-protected government bonds, so the US 10-year real yield acts as its cost of carry. When real yields fall, holding non-yielding metal costs less and gold usually rises.

On 140 month-end observations since January 2015, GoldHunts measures the correlation between month-over-month change in XAUUSD and the US 10-year TIPS yield (FRED DFII10) at -0.27, stronger than the nominal 10-year relationship at -0.25 and far stronger than the CPI index relationship at 0.03.

The page explains the transmission chain — policy path, nominal yields versus inflation expectations, real yield, allocator carry decision — and publishes the aligned monthly series as a free CSV and JSON download under an attribution licence.