What is the best month for gold historically?

On GoldHunts data since January 2015, January is strongest with an average XAUUSD return of +3.72% and 72.7% of months positive. The sample is only about eleven observations, so treat it as a weak prior rather than a signal.

Is gold seasonality tradeable?

Not on its own. No calendar month in our sample has an average return large enough relative to gold's monthly volatility to justify a position without an independent structural or macro reason.

Why is January strong for gold?

The plausible mechanism is new-year allocation into commodity and reserve baskets combined with Asian physical demand around Lunar New Year. With eleven observations, that remains a hypothesis rather than a demonstrated cause.

What is the strongest seasonal pattern in gold?

Intraday, not monthly. Across 2,599 hourly bars the 13:00 UTC hour averages $24.09 of range while the 21:00 UTC rollover hour averages $2.80. New York captures 52.6% of the average daily range.

What sample does this page use?

Month-end XAUUSD closes from January 2015 to date for the monthly table, and 2,599 hourly bars with timestamps normalised to true UTC for the intraday profile. Both are downloadable as CSV.

GOLD SEASONALITY

Name: XAUUSD monthly seasonality and hourly volatility profile
Creator: GoldHunts
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

On GoldHunts data since January 2015, January is the strongest month for XAUUSD with an average return of +3.72% and 72.7% of months positive. Sample sizes are around eleven observations per month, so monthly seasonality is a weak prior for position sizing, not a trading signal.

GoldHunts measures XAUUSD monthly seasonality since January 2015: January is the strongest month at +3.72% average return with 72.7% of months positive, on roughly eleven observations per calendar month.

Monthly seasonality in gold is a weak prior rather than a trading signal, because no month's average return is large relative to gold's monthly volatility at that sample size.

Intraday seasonality is far stronger and better sampled: across 2,599 hourly bars the 13:00 UTC hour averages $24.09 of range versus $2.80 at 21:00 UTC, and New York captures 52.6% of the average daily range.