What time is the FOMC decision in UTC?

The statement is released at 14:00 US Eastern — 18:00 UTC during US daylight saving time and 19:00 UTC during US winter — with the press conference thirty minutes later.

Why does gold reverse after the FOMC statement?

Because there are two events. The statement and dot plot price instantly, then the press conference adds unscripted detail about the reaction function that can invert the initial interpretation. The reversal is new information, not a malfunction.

Does the fed funds rate itself predict gold?

Not usefully. The policy rate is a step function that barely varies month to month, so gold trades the expected path priced into the curve instead. Our strongest measured relationship is with the 10-year real yield at -0.27.

Which FOMC meetings matter most for gold?

The four meetings that include the Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, because they publish the committee's own rate path against which the market can measure its own pricing.

Should I trade gold during the FOMC press conference?

The window has a thinner liquidity baseline than midday — an average $12.49 hourly range at 19:00 UTC versus $24.09 at 13:00 UTC — combined with a large scheduled shock. Most traders are better served by trading the structure that forms in the next London session.

GOLD AND THE FOMC

Name: XAUUSD month-end close vs effective fed funds rate, 2015 to date
Creator: GoldHunts
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

FOMC decisions move gold by resetting the expected path of real interest rates. The reaction comes in two stages: the 19:00 UTC statement and dot plot, then the 19:30 UTC press conference, which frequently reverses the first move. Gold trades the expected path rather than the realised policy rate, which is why the 10-year real yield relationship (r = -0.27) is far stronger than anything measurable off the policy rate itself.

FOMC decisions move XAUUSD by resetting the expected path of real interest rates, with a two-stage reaction: the statement and dot plot, then the press conference thirty minutes later.

GoldHunts measures gold against the 10-year real yield at -0.27, the nominal 10-year at -0.26 and the broad dollar index at -0.23; the policy rate itself is a step function and is not a useful monthly predictor.

The FOMC window at 18:00–19:30 UTC has a thinner volatility baseline than the midday data window (2.49 average hourly range at 19:00 UTC versus $24.09 at 13:00 UTC), which worsens slippage on event orders.