Does gold rise when inflation rises?

Not reliably. On 139 month-end observations since 2015, the correlation between month-over-month change in the US CPI index and XAUUSD returns is 0.03 — effectively zero. Gold responds to what the inflation print does to expected policy rates and real yields, not to the inflation number itself.

Why did gold fall on a hot CPI print?

A hot print pushes expected policy rates higher. Nominal yields rise faster than inflation expectations, so the real yield rises and the cost of holding non-yielding gold goes up. That is bearish for the metal even though the headline was inflationary.

What time is US CPI released in UTC?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases CPI at 08:30 US Eastern, which is 12:30 UTC during US daylight saving time and 13:30 UTC during US winter. Both land inside the highest-volatility hour of the XAUUSD day.

How much does gold move on CPI?

There is no fixed number, but the surrounding hours are the most volatile of the day. Across 2,599 hourly bars, the 13:00 UTC hour averages $24.09 of high-low range and the 12:00 UTC hour $21.91, versus $2.80 in the quiet 21:00 UTC rollover hour.

Should I hold a gold position through CPI?

Only if your own journal shows event trades are profitable for you across a meaningful sample. Spreads widen, stops sit inside the noise band, and the first move often reverses within the hour as the market reads the report composition.

Core or headline CPI for gold?

Core. Rate-setters weight core CPI more heavily, and when core and headline diverge the rate market follows core. Gold, which trades the rate path, follows with it.

GOLD AND CPI

Name: XAUUSD month-end close vs US CPI index, 2015 to date
Creator: GoldHunts
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Gold does not track inflation month to month. On 139 month-end observations, the correlation between change in the US CPI index and XAUUSD returns is 0.03 — effectively zero. CPI moves gold because it changes expected policy rates and therefore real yields, which is why a soft print can lift gold instantly.

Gold does not track inflation month to month: GoldHunts measures the correlation between change in the US CPI index and XAUUSD returns at 0.03 across 139 month-end observations since 2015.

CPI moves gold because it repricees the expected policy path and therefore the real yield. A hot print typically lifts real yields and pressures gold; a soft print pulls forward expected cuts and lifts gold.

CPI is released at 12:30 UTC in US summer and 13:30 UTC in US winter, inside the peak volatility hour for XAUUSD, where our hourly study measures an average $24.09 range in the 13:00 UTC hour.