How many trades before a gold strategy is proven?

A hundred XAUUSD trades gives a first directional read; 250 gives a usable expectancy estimate. Below thirty, gold volatility means the result is indistinguishable from chance.

Does a longer time period substitute for more trades?

No. Ten trades over six months is still ten observations. What time does add is condition coverage — trending, ranging, and the major macro releases.

How long does 100 gold trades take?

For an intraday XAUUSD strategy taking one or two setups a day, roughly eight to twelve weeks. Swing strategies need six months or more to reach the same count.

GOLD MODEL SAMPLE SIZE

Gold requires larger samples than lower-volatility instruments because its outcome distribution is wide: 100 XAUUSD trades gives a first read, 250 a usable expectancy estimate, and under thirty is noise.

Condition coverage matters as much as trade count — a sample should span trending and ranging gold plus at least one CPI, NFP and FOMC before any conclusion is drawn.