WHAT IS A REAL YIELD?

A real yield is a nominal government bond yield minus expected inflation, observed most directly in inflation-protected securities. Because gold pays no coupon, the real yield measures the return an investor forgoes by holding the metal instead of a bond, making it the cleanest expression of gold's opportunity cost and its most persistent macro driver.

This mechanic explains why inflation alone does not lift gold: if nominal yields rise faster than inflation expectations, real yields increase and the backdrop is a headwind despite the inflation headline. The correlation between gold and ten-year real yields is strong but varies by regime, so it is best used as a directional bias input measured from published data rather than as a short-term entry trigger.